Если по-простому, то это наш «метод научного тыка». Если более формально, то «грамотная прикидка» или даже «эмпирическая оценка». Например:
What we heard sounded to me like mortars, though that's an educated guess.
As a mechanic, I can't say exactly how much it will cost to repair your car, but I can make an educated guess.
This is a reasonable strategy but it is based, at best, on an educated guess about life's universals.
Оксфордский словарь впервые зафиксировал это выражение в издании 1863 года.
Среди синонимов я бы выделил, пожалуй, следующие:
Informed estimate
Educated estimation
Well-informed speculation
Educated conjecture
Informed prediction
Knowledgeable guess
Thoughtful guess
Informed deduction
Reasoned assumption
Intelligent guess
More anon
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